Yesterday , I did a easy rough calculation about General Motors to try to get at how much manufacturing job loss one may attribute to international competition versus automation and productiveness will increase. Varied commenters objected that my assumptions have been too simplistic, significantly in neglecting the home content material in foreign autos and the importance of shifts in the provide chain over time.
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Complicating your exercise even more is the fact that folks tend to keep their vehicles longer nowadays than they used to. That is largely as a result of quality has gone up, decreasing the frequency wanted to purchase a new automotive. I suspect this has much more to do with the declining share of GDP devoted to auto purchases than any of the other elements you mentioned.