by admin | 6:35 pm

Yesterday , I did a easy rough calculation about General Motors to attempt to get at how much manufacturing job loss one may attribute to international competition versus automation and productiveness increases. Various commenters objected that my assumptions have been too simplistic, particularly in neglecting the home content in international autos and the importance of shifts in the supply chain over time.

You possibly can see the rise in imports from a lot lower than 1% within the 1960s to about 2% of US GDP within the mid 2000s (till the nice recession hit). The opposite interesting factor is that consumption of autos (as a fraction of the financial system) began a severe decline within the early 2000s. That’s going to complicate the analysis which I’ll take up again in the next submit.

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The odd-looking line on this graph is the one for domestic consumption of autos and parts as a fraction of GDP; the road begins to drop after 2002, only reversing in 2010. It’s odd to me because a graph of US car gross sales is essentially flat from 2001 to 2007 at between sixteen and 17 million automobiles per yr. Reading off Stuart’s graph above, the gross consumption line begins at about three.7% of GDP in 2001 and drops to round 2.eight% in 2007, so roughly a 25% drop. Looking at BEA Desk 1.1.5. US GDP rose 36% throughout that period.